So I've seen the future and it does not include Electronic Software Distribution. It does not include any type of process where you are downloading bags of bits into your desktop and then install those applications onto your system. Cloud Distribution is commonplace but it was only recently that I've recognized that digitally distributed software/games, as a means of distribution, is coming to an end. Companies like OnLive are and will take hold of the distribution channels over the next couple of years. Any company who serves the older processes (like DRM companies or ESD empowering organizations) should take note.
Like water, distribution always follows the path of least resistance. Any channel that reduces barriers to acquisition will, eventually win over on older, more cludgey methods. The internet itself is the best example of this. Just go ask a newspaper person. The biggest threat right now is how existing companies will transition from desktop to cloud. This is disruptive change and could prove to be a huge barrier to some organizations. The core competencies needed to create a desktop application are not the same as creating a web based service (SaaS). This, at least in my mind, creates both risks and opportunities depending on where you sit within that dynamic.
Me? I plan to release something very disruptive...
